With Boris’ deal currently not even being debated in Parliament, Ministers have admitted that the 31st of October Brexit Deadline will be missed.
It’s worth noting that the current Brexit Deadline of the 31st of October was arbitrarily set by the EU extension granted after the previous deadline expired. However Boris jumped on the date as a means to galvanise action which, after passing the Withdrawal Bill’s second reading MPs promptly decided that 3 days to debate and amend the deal was simply too fast a time line.
We are now in a waiting game waiting for the EU to make a move and respond to the extension request forced on the Government by Parliament. It is likely to agree to the 31st January date as that is not contentious as it doesn’t interfere with British politics, it is after all the date stipulated in the letter composed by Parliament that the Government was forced to send.
However, any extension is likely to be a flexible extension and also specify the earliest date Brexit could take place. One of the reasons for this is France’s President Macron has lost patience and called for an immediate “Yes”/”No” decision from the British and, as is customary in the EU, he needs a way to save face and back out of his position. An early date gives him a graceful way to back down as well as giving the Government options to either get their legislation through Parliament and then call for an election or more likely just call for an election anyway.
A General Election is way over due, although there’s a good change the public will return a similarly split Parliament in which case who knows what will happen. Many of the minor parties are up for an election as soon as possible but Labour are still reluctant – partly because it would appear they have no confidence that they could win and their never ending excuse is still be trotted out – not while there’s still a risk of no deal taking place.
That excuse is wearing incredibly thin, not least of which because if the Conservatives win in sufficient numbers they could easily repeal any legislation passed or pass new laws to bring about a no deal Brexit anyway. But more realistically, they have a deal and it’s hard to see why having negotiated it they wouldn’t push it through – it’s Labour who say they’d negotiate a deal and then vote against their own deal (although in favour of remain) and with such confused politics it’s easy to see how they can envision the Conservatives of negotiating a deal and then opting for no deal – if you don’t have faith in your own policies why would you have faith in the opposition, especially someone as ‘colourful’ as Boris!
Sooner or later it looks like a deal will get passed and the only real remaining question is how many amendments will be attached by the Commons and the Lords and will it change the deal beyond all recognition? It’s worth remembering that currently the EU27 have been kept informed by Michel Barnier throughout the entire process and so in it’s current form are likely to nod the deal through when it’s approved by Britain and finally reaches them for ratification. However, make too many changes, especially around the border and Northern Ireland, or renege on the payments monies due to the EU and it’s easy to see that the EU could start adding amendments of their own or simply reject the Brexit Agreement saying it’s now no longer what they negotiated.
Sooner or later we’ll get a new Brexit Deadline, probably a flexible deadline. In the mean time if you’ve not already registered for our Brexit Webinar being held in partnership with GFS on the 20th of November reserve your place today – we’ll be updating you on everything you need to know and don’t forget, even if you only sell within the UK you may soon have to complete customs forms when shipping to Northern Ireland – Brexit will affect everyone in the UK and by then we’ll be able to bring you the very latest information to ensure your business carries on running smoothly.
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