With the current Brexit Date 10 days away and with Boris Johnson still insistent that we’ll leave the EU on the 31st of October the situation is still unclear on what will happen.
Boris Johnson has been considered by many to be a buffoon without a hope of getting the previous deal reopened but against all the odds he managed it but he has come back with a deal Labour officially declare as worse than the previous deal as it’s considered to be a harder Brexit. This in itself was an unexpected feat and led to Jean-Claude Juncker has stated that he would oppose any further extension to Brexit even if requested.
On Saturday, the Commons sat for what was supposed to be a meaningful vote on the deal only for it to be hijacked by Oliver Letwin with an amendment attaching all the legislation to be agreed before the deal could be approved – effectively we’ll give the deal the nod but hold approval until the rest of the legislation is passed.
Mealy mouthed words from Letwin and co claiming it was to prevent the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal disguise the fact that the effect is once again to kick the Brexit decision down the road. The one consistent theme from Parliament is the inability to make a decision and to use the excuse of protecting the UK to do nothing. Saying you’ll then vote for the deal after delaying it doesn’t hide the fact you’ve just hijacked it and the strange thing with the Letwin amendment is while it was intended to prevent a no deal Brexit, it has in some ways had the opposite effect as if the EU refuse yet another extension the 31st of October is still the default day the UK leaves the EU.
The other impact is to open the deal up to a raft of amendments from all sides making it even more likely that Parliament will be unable to make a decision in the foreseeable future. Options include attaching amendments ranging from a customs union through to another referendum which would delay things for months – something that no one really wants. Many politicians still seem afraid to come straight out with a vote in Parliament to simply cancel Brexit hoping the can get some wording on a referendum and get the public to achieve this – Only the Lib Dems are willing to say this decisively, with Labour still nominally supporting some form of Brexit although many publicly say they’d then rally against, even any better deal they’d negotiate if they were in power, in favour of remain.
This forced Boris to write to the EU requesting an extension under the Benn Act, although as he couldn’t bring himself to sign the letter and sent a second letter (and a third was sent) spelling out that it is Parliament who want the extension and not the Government. There’s now a side case in the Scottish courts to see if he broke the law with his second letter to ‘frustrate’ the Act. The Benn Act set out the text of the letter but no where in the Act did it specify that it must be signed… but that’s largely irrelevant and the court case could be viewed as simply more mischief making by those desperate to subvert Brexit. The letter has had the intended effect as it will be put to the EU27 leaders to consider an extension.
Now, the Government will introduce the legislation needed to be passed before Brexit takes place and bring the deal back to the Commons, but that might well be blocked by the Speaker on the grounds that the same debate can’t be brought before the House twice in the same Parliamentary session.
Whatever happens next, expect a raft of amendments from all sides to the deal meaning it will probably either change beyond all recognition or be delayed for some time.
In the mean time, the EU stance has definitely shifted from a hope that perhaps the UK will change it’s mind and remain to an acceptance that the UK will be leaving and just wanting a deal to be done done. Much of the UK is fed up with the whole Brexit debacle and is desperate for some certainty with Boris’ deal bringing a sense of relief which has now been dashed. At the same time those who voted Remain are more vociferous than ever desperate to find a way to reverse the referendum of three years ago.
Remain or Leave is largely irrelevant to what business needs which is to move forward with certainty in some form, which is what Parliament has once again ensured can’t happen. We’ll be watching what happens with the Brexit Date 10 days away and don’t forget to sign up for our post 31st October pre Black Friday webinar where we’ll look at what’s happened, the current state of play and the best route forward for your cross border selling.
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